Slightly wetter conditions are on the charts for Stellenbosch for the next two weeks, from 25 April to 5 May.
This is according to Elani Heyneke, correspondent for the Cape Town Weather Office of the South African Weather Service (SAWS).
Heyneke recommended that “a close eye” should be kept on the SAWS website for updates on forecasted weather conditions.
At the time of publication, the website’s forecast for 25 April and 26 April, was clear, with temperatures up to 23°C. Temperatures were expected to rise to 27°C on 27 April, before becoming cloudy with a chance of rain on 29 April.
Illustrated above is the weather forecast for 25 April to 29 April, according to the South African Weather Service website. GRAPHIC: Connor Cogill
Rising rainfall
“South Africa has always demonstrated high seasonal and inter-annual variability in terms of rainfall,” according to Jan de Waal, a physical geography lecturer at Stellenbosch University (SU).
The projected average rainfall for Stellenbosch in May is 60.6 mm, while the projected average rainfall for Stellenbosch in June is more than double this, at 148.2 mm, said Heyneke in written correspondence with MatieMedia.
Illustrated above is the average rainfall for Stellenbosch and Cape Town in May and June 2022, according to Elani Heyneke of the Cape Town Weather Office of the South African Weather Service. GRAPHIC: Connor Cogill
The seasonal outlook for winter 2022 suggests an average to below-average, or “normal to below-normal”, season in terms of precipitation. In terms of temperature, winter is expected to be “normal to above-normal […], especially at the start,” according to Heyneke.
“We [SAWS] will have to monitor the situation in order to see how the end of the winter season will look,” said Heyneke.
Unpredictable conditions
Seasonal forecasting in South Africa is “very challenging”, said De Waal via written correspondence with MatieMedia. Often, South Africa also has extremes in dry and wet periods from year to year, and there is scientific evidence that we are at a high risk for weather-related disasters in future, he added.
With reference to the recent Western Cape drought and Kwazulu-Natal floods, De Waal said that some recent research suggests rainfall extremes have become more intense, and it is likely that this will continue to be the case going forward.
“We often have extremes in dry and wet periods from year to year. These are often caused by global atmospheric drivers,” according to Jan de Waal, Stellenbosch University physical geography lecturer. PHOTO: Connor Cogill
“It is entirely possible that climate change may make these phenomena [weather-related disasters] more common or more severe in the future,” added De Waal.
An example of the potential impact of heavy rainfall is that it can be detrimental to farming, according to Jancke van Wyk, a fourth-year BScAgric student at SU. “Large hail storms and frost damage are a problem […] because your fruit gets damaged,” said Van Wyk. Droughts, on the other hand, result in reduced groundwater and irrigation water, she added.
Most large-scale farmers have implemented rotational cropping systems to avoid adverse weather conditions, according to Jancke van Wyk, a fourth-year BScAgric student at Stellenbosch University. PHOTO: Connor Cogill